Mortgage outlook: Rates could stagnate in January | Real estate

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Holden lewis

January Mortgage Rate Forecasts

I predict mortgage rates will stay about the same in January. They are more likely to decrease slightly than to increase.

The omicron variant of COVID-19 could have its strongest impact on the U.S. economy and health care system in January, before easing in February. I expect the economic effect of the January omicron wave to limit mortgage rates.

If I’m wrong, it will be because the recent upward trend in mortgage rates is relentless despite workers making themselves sick, airlines canceling flights, and consumers paying off vacation debts rather than shopping. This last element is what we typically see every January.

What happened in december

Mortgage rates remained stable for the first three weeks of December. But the average 30-year mortgage rate rose 10 basis points in the last week of the year. This pushed the average rate for the month a little higher: from 3.03% in November to 3.06% in December.

It is as I predicted. At the beginning of December I wrote that “much of the December rate hike would occur in the last week or so of the year.” Allow me to congratulate myself. I often don’t go wrong with these monthly forecasts, but rarely do I make such a precise prediction and hit the nail on the head.

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